UPDATED AGAIN Wednesday 11/12/08 2:15 PM
YET ANOTHER UPDATE Thursday 11/13/08 12:00 Noon
And you thought the election was over...well, it is. Totally over. Irreversibly over. Decided. In the bag for Obama. No question. But there’s still the Senate...
As of this evening, (Thursday) there were still three Senate races undecided; and the Democrats are three short of the magic 60 seats, the number of seats necessary to defeat a Republican filibuster. At least, that’s how the math works on paper; in reality the vote won’t usually split along party lines (though it happens often enough to be fustrating) and the "magic number" isn’t that much more than symbolic. So what’s the big deal?
I haven’t quite figured that out.
Perhaps it’s because without a clear majority in the House and that magical 2/3 majority in the Senate, it’s not as easy to claim a "mandate" (there’s that word again) for Democratic/liberal policies and goals. I don’t think it’s as clear cut as that; I don’t think we live in a world where, say, 51 % of the vote equals a mandate and 50% doesn’t. I don’t think that a world where 52% of the voters approved your policies and 48% didn’t (those are the numbers we’re facing now) gives you clear authority to do any damn thing you please.
You can spin it so that every vote that didn’t go toward your main opponent is the same as a vote that went to your candidate, as if the "third" party candidates don’t matter, but those sort of numbers are pure voodoo mathematics, the sort that Bush used to justify a lot of what he did, and we shouldn’t make him our teacher.
There are still conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans, and still a few independents, so the magic 60 senate seats isn’t as important as the media would make you think. Still, enough votes do split directly along party lines that it does mean something, if not all that much. So as of Thursday night, here’s the few Senate seats still outstanding.
Minnesota
This race pitted Republican incumbent Norm Coleman against Democratic challenger Al Frankin. Frankin, if you’ve never heard of him, was a comedian and a writer for Saturday Night Live for a long time. (Remember Trading Places? Remember the two stoners who were minding the caged gorilla on the train? One of them was Frankin.) In recent years Frankin has become a popular liberal author and radio talk show host.
The Frankin-Coleman race is the closest of them all; last time I heard, there were just over 300 votes separating them—under the ½ of 1% that automatically triggers a recount under Minnesota law. That recount won’t happen until sometime in December, and neither side is giving up (and with a vote this close, they shouldn’t), so we’re not likely to know the results here for a while yet.
Georgia
This race, between Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss and Democratic challenger Jim Martin, isn’t all that close, with Chamblis holding more than 49% and Martin holding less than 47%. Georgia law, however, requires a margin of at least one vote over 50%, so this one appears to be headed for a run-off. And like the Minnesota recount, that run-off won’t happen until December.
This race was complicated by a Libertarian candidate (Allen Buckley) who got about 3% in the election and won’t be in the run-off, so if the run-off happens (there were still enough uncounted ballots, as of Thursday, to yet decide the election for Chamblis) enough of them may go to either candidate to decide the election one way or the other.
Alaska
This is a weird one. The incumbent, Republican Ted Stevens, is a convicted felon (seven felonies, to be precise) and with 9,000 uncounted ballots (as of Wednesday) it’s still too close to call. A convicted felon can’t serve in the senate so even if he wins, as seems likely, there’ll have to be a "special election" for the seat which will happen in two years. In the interim, Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin will appoint someone to fill the seat.
While Sarah Palin can’t appoint herself, she could resign as Governor and have her Lieutenant-Governor appoint her to the job, thus getting a foothold in Washington. If she still wants it.
Then again, there’s one other possibility; Stevens could win his case(s) on appeal, and be allowed to serve.
And that’s how it breaks down. Perhaps in a literal sense, though I hope not. In any case, none of this matters all that much except for achieving the magical, mythical 60 seats, and I can’t see that as being all that important save for bragging rights. Still, where votes fall along party lines then 60 seats becomes the number necessary to cut off a Republican filibuster, and the Republicans have shown themselves in the past to be more than willing to resort to filibuster when persuasion hasn’t worked, so I suppose it could be important, after all. But not terribly so; I imagine it will be the rare vote that doesn’t draw votes from one side or the other, and I suspect that the Democrats will find they need more than that magic 60 to really feel comfortable.
Some people are never satisfied.
The Blues Viking
UPDATE 11/7/08: New data--The Coleman-Frankin race in Minnesota is down to just over 200 votes. (Coleman over Frankin, though a recount appears to be inevitable.)
One other bit worth noting: Joe Lieberman, formerly a Democrant but currently an Independant, is having a bit of trouble holding on to his committee chair these days and has been asked to step down by the Democrats. Joe is currently being courted by the Republicans and may start caucusing with them. This would change the balance in the Senate. A bit.
BV
ANOTHER UPDATE 11/12/08:
The Minnesota race is still tight, with Coleman holding on to barely over 200 votes over Frankin.
But the Georgia race is the interesting one; highly placed Republican bigwigs (McCain, Huckabee, Romney and Gulliani, all failed Presidential candidates) are expected to decend upon Georgia in support of Chambliss with Obama sending key mambers of his team in support of Martin.
I'm not sure that the Republican startegy of Big Republicans is a good one; the four defeated wannabe-presidents all come from four different places politically, and you can't even call all of them conservative.
But it's interesting to note the kind of campaign ads that they're running; very anti-Obama, even after Obama has won the election. The plan now seems to be to make people afraid of what Obama would do with a "veto proof" majority in the Senate. (Remember that there already is a majority for the Democrats in the Senate, but short of the magic 60 seats.)
I don't recall a Predident-elect being so demonized before; I don't think it will work. Nor do I think that the Four Dead Horsemen are going to be much of a help. But I may be wrong.
With regard to the situation in Alaska, a bit of a correction is in order. Stevens doesn't automatically lose his seat for being a convicted felon; but he's very likely to be removed from the senate because of it, just the same. But that decision has yet to be made, and when it is made it will be by the Senate as a body. But I wouldn't bet the farm on his staying in office. But then, there are still 9,000 uncounted ballots and Stevens is leading by about 3,200 votes, so this one still counts as undecided.
(Oh, and with regard to Joe Lieberman: Barack Obama has come forward in support of Lieberman retaining both his committee chairmanship and his place in the Democratic caucus, so it looks like he'll be with us for a while yet. Beholden to Obama.)
BV
AND YET ANOTHER UPDATE 11/13/08:
Mark Begich, Mayor of Anchorage, AK, now leads convicted felon Ted Stevens. By 800 or so votes (up from just 3 votes when I turned in last night). This is still very much anyone's race. Go here for details.
BV
The opinions here expressed are mine and if you don’t like them you can get your own damn blog.
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